Sunday, February 9, 2020

Weekly Sweats: A Prediction 5k


Exhibit A: the picture that I post every time I run a race.

Exhibit B: the picture that I'm posting for my first race of 2020:


No I didn't forget my Garmin, it was not invited.  Last week I left off with the tease that I would be doing something outside of my comfort zone, and here it is.  A no Garmin/no headphones race a.k.a "naked running".

I'm linking up with the Weekly Run Down, please head over to Kim and Deborah to check it out.

Here's what went down in the world of sweatin'  this week.  17.1 miles of running and one weight workout.

Monday: ouch!  I started the week with quite the case of DOMS (in the wonderful words of Kim, "always earned never given") from Sunday's weight workout.  I struggled through 4 miles at an easy pace on the treadmill, I will not disclose how many breaks I took to get there.

Tuesday: 5 treadmill miles, I didn't feel like doing speed work so I just ran easy and it gave my body the reset that it needed.

Wednesday: weights

Thursday: 5 treadmill miles easy

Friday: off

Saturday: A Prediction 5k, more about that in a moment.

Sunday: by rights I should have done weights but I'm not feeling it, back to the drawing board on how to fit weights in with running.

All About The Prediction 5k
I learned about prediction races from Lisa last fall and was excited to try one.   How it works is that you predict your finish time when you sign up and your result is how close you come to your prediction.  Example: someone who predicts a 30 minute finish time and comes in at 30:05 will win over someone who predicts a 24 minute finish time and comes in at 24:06.

Highlights of this race:
  • First race without a Garmin
  • First race without headphones
  • Coldest race @ low 20's temps
  • First race run on snow and ice
  • Cheapest race registration @ $5
  • Highest swag-to-registration value
My first plan for this race was to take a shot at the elusive sub 30.  My 5k PR is 30:41 and that's on a perfectly flat course at a race that always has perfect weather that I've run a billion times.  I wasn't familiar with the area where this race was but I figured if committed to the goal and ran at "just below puking" intensity I would have a shot. The wrench in the plan was that being a race in February, a major storm came in on Wednesday and was still going strong as of bedtime the day before the race.  Let's put it this way, if yesterday had been a normal long run day, I would have opted inside on the treadmill in a heartbeat.  As it was, I figured that as long as the race wasn't canceled it was probably safe to run.

In view of the weather, I changed my goals as follows:
A goal: finish
B goal: start
C goal: pick up race packet

The race was held at a park and the course was two loops of a paved pedestrian trail that went around a lake.  The trail had been plowed and salted but there was still snow and ice underfoot.  On the plus side, it was sunny and there wasn't much wind.  The most difficult part of the race turned out to be achieving my C goal, which was a long walk up an unshoveled path to a park gazebo and a good bit of time waiting in line in the cold.  Once I had the goods it was 10 minutes until start time and I hung out in my car with the heat blasting.  I really, really needed to pee but couldn't bear the idea of using a freezing porta potty, so I sucked it up and figured it would give me extra incentive to run fast (I took care of business after the race and yes the temperature made it a truly dreadful experience).

I wore two pairs of running tights (fun fact: I own only two pairs of running tights so I wore 100% of my running tights to the race), two shirts, my running jacket, gloves, a neck gaiter, and a hat.  The only skin that I had exposed was the area between my eyebrows and my chin.  At the start line the runner beside me, who was identically dressed, said "it's my first time naked" and I said "me too".  There were 200 runners total, which I thought was really good turnout for a freezing February morning and it occurred to me that if there was ever a time to use the phrase "like minded people" this was it.

So how'd I do?  From left to right: gender, age, actual finish (gun time, it wasn't a chip race), predicted finish, and delta to predicted finish, which was the ranking in the race.  The top finishers were 2 seconds off their predictions and the "back of the pack" was around 10 minutes off.

So I didn't sub 30, but it was as good as goal as any for the race.  Assuming that I run this race next year (um it's a $5 race, why wouldn't I run again?), I'll use my Turkey Trot finish time as my prediction.  That's the picture that I started this post with, the race times were just 2 seconds apart.

Headphones Recap: not having music was a total non issue, it just wasn't something that I thought about at all.  Point taken for future races.

Garmin Recap: yes I missed it and I think I would have pushed myself a bit more if I'd had the feedback on my pace.  I'm a nut for All The Data and I have no idea whether the course was long or short, what the elevation was, what my splits were, yada, yada. So I have zero desire to be a "naked" runner but I did take the rest of the day off from my Garmin as a tribute to the spirit of the race.  Though my Garmin would like to point out that I slept with him the night before because he was my alarm clock and he woke me up for the race to start with.

Weather Recap: the cold became a non issue as the race went on, I was definitely out of my comfort zone with the snow and ice underfoot but hey it's February and it was what it was. 

Swag Recap: I love it when a race has something for every member of my family.
  • For me: a knitted cap
  • For hubs: a turkey sandwich
  • For stepson #1: a snack pack of Cheeze-Its, which was a match made in heaven since he's been on a Cheeze-Its kick lately.
  • For stepson #2 a.k.a "Cocoa Boy": cocoa mix (they had cups and hot water at the race) 
  • Technically I didn't bring anything home for stepdog, but she got an extra walk as my cool down from the race, so she was very happy.
That's hella swag for $5.  But there's more: the top 10 finishers got free entries to our big time area races.  The winning crowd was 2 seconds off their finish time, the "back of the pack" was in the 10 minute range.  So what I love about this race is that any runner (or walker) can win it.

P.S. about that $5 entry, this race is a tease to join the company's race series and it's very clearly stated on the registration page that the race has a high likelihood of being canceled due to the time of year.

Has anyone else done a prediction race?  Thoughts?

30 comments:

  1. I have never done a prediction race, but it would be a challenge to guess an accurate finish time. I know my "average" 5K, of course, but that will vary with all the factors you mentioned. Almost exactly a year ago, I did a 5K race...a new to me race. I forgot both my music and Garmin, but actually ran one of my fastest 5K's ever...so had I predicted that finish time, I would have been way off LOL

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    1. I was surprised by how many people came within a minute of their predicted finish, that's a talent for sure.

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  2. Wow, that's a great deal and a nice amount of swag for $5!

    I've never run a race without my Garmin but I have done two without headphones - but not by my choosing. My headphones died early on in each race, lol.

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    1. oh I remember now, that happened to me once where I started the race with music and then got left high and dry. It definitely hurt my running mojo.

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  3. Sounds like a fun concept! Yeah February is a very dicey time to have a race. What a great turnout!

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    1. I think it's the only race in my area in Feb. Looking forward to April and October racing, those are pretty much the only "safe" weather months.

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  4. I've never done a prediction race but it sounds like a fun challenge! Like you, I'd feel lost without my Garmin--it helps me guide my pacing! But I've been running sans headphones more often lately. I couldn't--just couldn't run that trail race with headphones. Hello, it's nature! Plus I use music to dial in and zone out and that is not what you want to do on the trails. Nice job on your race!

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    1. I know what you mean, some of my favorite runs last year were on the beach and there was no way I was going to miss out on the sound of the ocean. Not having the Garmin was really tough, I just didn't have any feeling for my pace at all.

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  5. What a great deal for $5! A prediction race..interesting concept!

    I would be interested in trying to race without a Garmin...it would be hard not to go out too fast though!

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    1. Exactly, that was my biggest fear for the race. I know I started more aggressively than I usually do.

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  6. I have never done a prediction 5K but I would like to sometime. I can see how a watch can push you to go faster to make your prediction but I can also see how the reverse could be true as well. Thanks so much for linking up today

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    1. Deborah, thanks to you and Kim for doing the linkup, I love catching up with everyone.

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  7. This sounds like a fun race! I bet its really hard to predict a race time. I think I would really struggle to do a race without a Garmin!

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    1. Let's put it this way, I would never have volunteered to do a race without my Garmin. It was a really interesting experience.

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  8. I would have felt SO NAKED without my Garmin!! I once almost missed a race because I forgot my watch at home and drove back to get it. Luckily race was delayed so I was on time for the start, LOL! Well done on doing something out of your comfort zone!

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    1. ha ha it really wasn't that bad, but I don't think I'll ever go for more than 5k a year "naked".

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  9. I love the idea of a Prediction race. What a great way to make it more fun, and that's one hell of a swag ratio
    Congrats on a solid race.

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    1. thanks, it was a fun one for sure. Geez it's only been 5 weeks since my last race and now I'm dying to do more of them.

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  10. Way to go with that race without the headphones and without the watch! That would definitely be outside my comfort zone too. Though the snowy/icy course sounds like the most concerning part. I'm glad it went well. And that's some nice swag for $5!

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    1. Yes, I have zero tolerance for ice so that's why my B goal was to just start and see how bad it was.

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  11. I love it! I've never done anything like that but I feel like I could. I sometimes turn on my watch and only listen to the buzz when it tells me my kilometers. otherwise I don't look at it! and no music for me is no problem :)

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    1. Me too, some days I'm absolutely glued to the Garmin and some days it just comes along for the ride.

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  12. What a fun idea for a race. I've never heard of a prediction race, but it sounds suspensful!

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    1. I wish now that I'd tried to make a true prediction of my time instead of trying to go for sub 30...next year.

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  13. I've never done a prediction race but for $5 i just might! I can run/race without music but not without my Garmin. :-)

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    1. yes! I want to run this race again, so I will commit to running 5k a year without the Garmin but no more than that.

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  14. Prediction runs are HARD. I do run/walk, so I rely on my Garmin for intervals. I didn't do very well at my last prediction run, but it was still fun.

    I love that $5 registration fee. And I love Cheeze-Its!

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    1. Exactly, it was fun and that's the true A goal for every race. Well that and getting two unique things to bring home to the stepkids.

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  15. That's so cool. I have heard about these races but we don't have them around me-- at least not that I know of. You did really great in those conditions and were pretty close to 30! Congrats.

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    1. I am so hungry for sub 30...I am going to get it at the May race. I was amazed at how many people were within 30 seconds of their time.

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